The poll found Stefanik — a staunch Trump ally who was initially nominated to serve as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations before the president asked her to remain in Congress — leading Hochul by one percentage point (43-42) among registered voters. An additional six percent of respondents indicated that they remain unsure, while nine percent of respondents said they would vote for a third party candidate.

Stefanik’s lead was even greater over current New York lieutenant governor Antonio Delgado, who has announced a primary challenge against Hochul. In a hypothetical matchup against Delgado, Stefanik leads by six percentage points, the poll found. A greater number of voters said they were either unsure or would vote for a third-party candidate (20 percent) in this scenario, reflecting a likely lack of name recognition for the lieutenant governor.

“While more than a year remains until Election Day, these findings underscore that New York’s next statewide race could be its most competitive in decades,” Manhattan Institute polling chief Jesse Arm wrote in his analysis.

Stefanik has long indicated her interest in a gubernatorial bid and is reportedly set to make a formal announcement in November, according to a report from Politico. “She got very good advice from [former New York governor] Pataki. It was ‘don’t cloud the local elections,’” New York GOP Chair Ed Cox told the outlet. “She just doesn’t want to get mixed up in the local elections, let those happen, let the candidates carry that, let them be highlighted, and then after that she will declare.”

The congresswoman is heavily favored to secure the Republican nomination as of this report. Fellow U.S. Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY) has also been viewed as a potential candidate, as he is one of the few Republican lawmakers representing a district that leans Democrat on the Cook Partisan Voting Index.

Lawler announced earlier this year that he was not considering a bid, however, Additional candidates have expressed interest, though they have yet to find any polling success.

A June survey from Siena College, which was conducted before Lawler said he would not be running, found Stefanik out in front with 35 percent of the vote. Lawler trailed in second with 18 percent, while Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman trailed in a distant third with seven percent.

A sizable number of respondents, 39 percent, remained undecided.

Republicans will be hoping to build on solid gains made in the deep blue stronghold during the last midterm elections cycle. In the 2022 midterms, Republicans made notable inroads, capitalizing on voter concerns over crime, inflation, and migration. The party managed to flip three U.S. House seats (NY-03, NY-17, and NY-19), increasing their delegation from eight to 11 out of 26 districts, good for their best showing since 2000.

Current EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin has been widely credited with playing a key role in the rightward swing, as he mounted a formidable challenge against Hochul in the state’s gubernatorial election. Zeldin managed to secure 46.7 percent of the vote to Hochul’s 53.1 percent, making the race the closest in New York since 1994.